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Will world leaders fail the first post-Copenhagen climate test?

World leaders are set to fail their first post-Copenhagen test on climate change, leaving global temperatures on track for a dangerous 4 degree rise, Oxfam said today, ahead of the Jan. 31 deadline for countries to submit their emission reduction targets under the Copenhagen Accord.

World leaders are set to fail their first post-Copenhagen test on climate change, leaving global temperatures on track for a dangerous 4 degree rise, Oxfam said today, ahead of the Jan. 31 deadline for countries to submit their emission reduction targets under the Copenhagen Accord.

“World leaders are likely to fail the first test of whether they meant what they said in Copenhagen,” said Oxfam climate advisor Antonio Hill.  “They recognized that temperatures should be kept from rising above the 2 degree danger level yet they are still talking about emissions cuts that will create a near 4 degree rise and a world crippled by drought.”

The recognition that temperatures should be kept from rising above the 2 degree danger level is one of the few positive points in the Accord brokered by the US, India, China, South Africa and Brazil at the Copenhagen Summit.

Rich countries’ pledges on emissions cuts, however, are expected to total just 11-18 per cent below 1990 levels - less than half of the 40 per cent cuts needed from rich countries to keep temperatures in check.

Accord pledges will likely lead to a 3.9 C rise in global temperatures by 2100, according to climate models. This will create a world crippled by drought, with 4 billion people affected by water shortages across the globe,year-round droughts in Southern Africa, and serious droughts in Europe every 10 years instead of every hundred.

The Accord also promises $30 billion in “fast track finance” - emergency funds to help the poorest and most vulnerable countries cope with climate impacts over the next three years. Bangladesh, one of the world’s most vulnerable countries, needs an estimated $1.5M to provide drinking water to coastal communities whose traditional water sources have been contaminated with salt water due to sea level rise.

“The next big test is whether the world leaders will be able to deliver the climate cash promised in the Accord,” Hill said. “This means delivering the emergency funds the poorest countries need to adapt to climate change now and sorting out how to raise and deliver $100 billion within the year.”

To deliver their fair share of global efforts, rich countries would also need to provide $200 billion per year by 2020 to help developing countries adapt and reduce their own emissions. Progress hangs on the establishment of a High Level Panel to recommend how the money will be raised and delivered.

Oxfam says the Accord proves that the bottom up approach, where countries set their own emission reduction targets, will not deliver the cuts that are needed. 

 “The lacklustre response shows the Accord isn’t solving anything,” Hill said. “Only a UN deal can deliver the global emissions reductions that are needed and ensure the voices of the world’s poorest and most vulnerable countries are heard. Real negotiations must restart now. Every year we delay an estimated 150,000 people will have died and a further 1 million will be displaced as a result of climate change.”

Notes

Oxfam climate experts are available for interview in countries around the globe. Contact: Karen Palmer, Oxfam Canada, 613-240-3047

An outline of country pledges on emissions reductions is at:
www.oxfam.org/state-of-play-accord.pdf

Oxfam’s analysis of how global emissions reductions should be shared across countries is at: http://www.oxfam.org.uk/resources/policy/climate_change/fair-climate-deal-copenhagen.htm

Climate models include climate interactive www.climateinteractive.org and climate action tracker www.climateactiontracker.org. Climate impacts statistics are from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change 2007 and Stern Review 2006.

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