Will world leaders fail the first post-Copenhagen climate test?

World
leaders are set to fail their first post-Copenhagen test on climate change,
leaving global temperatures on track for a dangerous 4 degree rise, Oxfam said
today, ahead of the Jan. 31 deadline for countries to submit their emission
reduction targets under the Copenhagen Accord.

'World leaders are likely
to fail the first test of whether they meant what they said in Copenhagen,
said Oxfam climate advisor Antonio Hill.
'They recognized that temperatures should be kept from rising above the 2
degree danger level yet they are still talking about emissions cuts that will
create a near 4 degree rise and a world crippled by drought.

The recognition that
temperatures should be kept from rising above the 2 degree danger level is one
of the few positive points in the Accord brokered by the US, India, China,
South Africa and Brazil at the Copenhagen Summit.

Rich countries' pledges on
emissions cuts, however, are expected to total just 11-18 per cent below 1990
levels - less than half of the 40 per cent cuts needed from rich countries to
keep temperatures in check.

Accord pledges will likely
lead to a 3.9 C rise in global temperatures by 2100, according to climate
models. This will create a world crippled by drought, with 4 billion people
affected by water shortages across the globe,year-round droughts in Southern
Africa, and serious droughts in Europe every 10 years instead of every hundred.

The Accord also promises
$30 billion in 'fast track finance - emergency funds to help the poorest and
most vulnerable countries cope with climate impacts over the next three years.
Bangladesh, one of the world's most vulnerable countries, needs an estimated
$1.5M to provide drinking water to coastal communities whose traditional water
sources have been contaminated with salt water due to sea level rise.

'The next big test is
whether the world leaders will be able to deliver the climate cash promised in
the Accord, Hill said. 'This means delivering the emergency funds the poorest
countries need to adapt to climate change now and sorting out how to raise and
deliver $100 billion within the year.

To deliver their fair
share of global efforts, rich countries would also need to provide $200 billion
per year by 2020 to help developing countries adapt and reduce their own emissions.
Progress hangs on the establishment of a High Level Panel to recommend how the
money will be raised and delivered.

Oxfam
says the Accord proves that the bottom up approach, where countries set their
own emission reduction targets, will not deliver the cuts that are needed.

'The lacklustre response shows the Accord
isn't solving anything, Hill said. 'Only a UN deal can deliver the global
emissions reductions that are needed and ensure the voices of the world's
poorest and most vulnerable countries are heard. Real negotiations must restart
now. Every year we delay an estimated 150,000 people will have died and a
further 1 million will be displaced as a result of climate change.

Notes

Oxfam climate experts are
available for interview in countries around the globe. Contact: Karen Palmer, Oxfam Canada, 613-240-3047

An outline of country
pledges on emissions reductions is at:
www.oxfam.org/state-of-play-accord.pdf

Oxfam's analysis of how global
emissions reductions should be shared across countries is at: http://www.oxfam.org.uk/resources/policy/climate_change/fair-climate-deal-copenhagen.htm

Climate
models include climate interactive www.climateinteractive.org and
climate action tracker www.climateactiontracker.org. Climate impacts statistics are from the Intergovernmental
Panel on Climate Change 2007 and Stern Review 2006.